Complexity and Satisficing: Theory with Evidence from Chess

Speaker
יובל סלנט מאונ' נורתווסטרן
Date
17/06/2024 - 12:30 - 11:00Add To Calendar 2024-06-17 11:00:00 2024-06-17 12:30:00 Complexity and Satisficing: Theory with Evidence from Chess : We develop a satisficing model of choice in which the available alternatives differ in their inherent complexity. We assume---and experimentally validate---that complexity leads to errors in the perception of alternatives' values. The model yields sharp predictions about the effect of complexity on choice probabilities, some of which qualitatively contrast with those of maximization-based choice models. We confirm the predictions of the satisficing model---and thus reject maximization---in a novel data set with information on hundreds of millions of real-world chess moves by highly experienced players. Looking beyond chess, our work offers a blueprint for detecting satisficing outside of the laboratory.   The most updated version of the paper is here: https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/salant/personal/Papers/Complexity.Satisficing.Theory.Evidence.%20Salant.Spenkuch.pdf   Economics Building (Number 504). Room 011 אוניברסיטת בר-אילן - המחלקה לכלכלה Economics.Dept@mail.biu.ac.il Asia/Jerusalem public
Place
Economics Building (Number 504). Room 011
Abstract

: We develop a satisficing model of choice in which the available alternatives differ in their inherent complexity. We assume---and experimentally validate---that complexity leads to errors in the perception of alternatives' values. The model yields sharp predictions about the effect of complexity on choice probabilities, some of which qualitatively contrast with those of maximization-based choice models. We confirm the predictions of the satisficing model---and thus reject maximization---in a novel data set with information on hundreds of millions of real-world chess moves by highly experienced players. Looking beyond chess, our work offers a blueprint for detecting satisficing outside of the laboratory.

 

The most updated version of the paper is here: https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/salant/personal/Papers/Complexity.Satisficing.Theory.Evidence.%20Salant.Spenkuch.pdf

 

תאריך עדכון אחרון : 16/06/2024