Statistical Inference in Evolutionary Dynamics

Speaker
Ryoji Sawa, University of Tsukuba
Date
21/12/2021 - 13:00 - 11:30Add To Calendar 2021-12-21 11:30:00 2021-12-21 13:00:00 Statistical Inference in Evolutionary Dynamics We introduce evolutionary dynamics for two-action games where agents with diverse preferences use statistical inference to guide their behavior. In each period, agents are randomly selected to revise actions. They draw a random sample of other agents’ actions, use statistical inference to estimate the action distribution in the population, and choose the best response to the estimate. We show that this dynamic gives rise to a simple aggregate dynamic. The dynamic converges to a Bayesian sampling equilibrium with statistical inference (SESI) if and only if the aggregate dynamic converges to the corresponding state. Furthermore, the set of Bayesian SESIs is globally asymptotically stable. We discuss the global convergence to a unique Bayesian SESI in anti-coordination games, a welfare-improving tax scheme, equilibrium selection in coordination games, an application to the diffusion of behavior on networks, and the extension of heterogeneity to the inference procedures. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3767635 To view the slides click here Zoom (https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82536086839) and it will be broadcasted in the Economics common room אוניברסיטת בר-אילן - Department of Economics Economics.Dept@mail.biu.ac.il Asia/Jerusalem public
Place
Zoom (https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82536086839) and it will be broadcasted in the Economics common room
Affiliation
https://sites.google.com/site/ryojisweb/
Abstract

We introduce evolutionary dynamics for two-action games where agents with diverse preferences use statistical inference to guide their behavior. In each period, agents are randomly selected to revise actions. They draw a random sample of other agents’ actions, use statistical inference to estimate the action distribution in the population, and choose the best response to the estimate. We show that this dynamic gives rise to a simple aggregate dynamic. The dynamic converges to a Bayesian sampling equilibrium with statistical inference (SESI) if and only if the aggregate dynamic converges to the corresponding state. Furthermore, the set of Bayesian SESIs is globally asymptotically stable. We discuss the global convergence to a unique Bayesian SESI in anti-coordination games, a welfare-improving tax scheme, equilibrium selection in coordination games, an application to the diffusion of behavior on networks, and the extension of heterogeneity to the inference procedures.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3767635

To view the slides click here

Last Updated Date : 19/01/2022