The Marriage Age U-Shape • Job Talk

Data from 160 countries show that during the twentieth century, western countries followed a U-shaped pattern in the age of first marriage of both genders, while other countries did not. I explain the uniqueness of this pattern in terms of the low labor force participation of married women at the start of the productivity boom. The rise of the “male” industries decreased the age of first marriage as long as the “female” industries remained small. The increase in the age of first marriage is driven by productivity spillovers into the female industries. The data of the U.S. gross state product by industry provides supporting evidence that the rise of the female sectors explains up to 30% of the U-shape's increasing portion for both genders. Additionally, evidence from the 1970s oil boom in Montana demonstrates how, in accordance with the model, the age of marriage followed a U-shape in the oil counties while it rose monotonically in the rest of the state.