Rockets and Votes (Job Talk)

Date : 

Citizens in many countries are forced to make political decisions under a terrorist threat. This paper explores the effects of rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip on voting patterns in Israeli elections between 1999 and 2015. Relying on a micro-level dataset of claims for rocket-related property damages as a proxy for the severity of the rocket threat, I Önd that an additional one thousand claims in a locality increases right-bloc partiesívote-share by about 4 percentage points. Recent attacks, initial exposure and geographical proximity lead to stronger e§ects on voting behavior. The results are driven by actual exposure of the locality to rocket Öre rather than the mere threat of an attack.